Silent yet potentially impactful diplomatic talks during the last three weeks have revived the hope that the five-decade-old dispute involving Western Sahara would be solved. The U.S.-mediated talks in Washington and Madrid, united the representatives of Morocco, Algeria, Mauritania, the Polisario Front and the United Nations in what analysts call the most meaningful consultation on the matter since 2019. The fresh diplomatic drive is indicative of a wider global campaign to abandon a stalemate which has existed.

Remarking on words of the U.S Secretary of State in 1950s, John Foster Dulles, who stated that: The measure of success is not a hard problem to solve, is that it is the same problem you solved last year and added to that, this could be considered to be the start of a significant change in one of Africa’s most established territorial conflicts.

Diplomatic Reengagement

Staffan de Mistura, the Special Envoy of the UN Secretary General to the Western Sahara and Massad Boulos, who was representing the Trump administration portfolio on Africa issues, were part of the meetings. These negotiations were based on the resolution of 2797 by the UN, which extended the mandated period of the UN observer mission and made the Morocco proposal of autonomy the foundation of a mutually agreeable resolution.

During the meeting in Madrid, the Moroccan delegates showed a detailed 40 page set of autonomy proposals that are envisioning regional governing bodies such as a local legislature and legal system working under the Moroccan constitutional sovereignty.

The fundamental sovereign elements like currency, foreign policy and defense would remain under national control. The following step will be the refining of technical aspects and this will be in areas like the education policy and preservation of cultural heritage up to taxation and development planning.

The talks reflect an evolving diplomatic tone. Rather than focusing solely on questions of sovereignty, negotiators appear increasingly attentive to governance functionality, economic viability, and regional stability.

The negotiations are evolving with diplomatic efforts. Instead of concentrating on the questions of sovereignty only, negotiators seem to be much more concerned with the functionality of governance, economic sustainability, and stability in the region.

Historical Roots

The Western Sahara region which is the Morocco’s southern province is the cultural intersection of Bedouin, Sahrawi, Arab and Berber/Sanhaja. These societies were constructing both trade and social relationships across the desert way before division came into being by colonial boundaries in the 20th century.

The contemporary politics are however not characterized by the colonial past, but rather by the pace at which Africa is currently undergoing economic change.

Africa’s Economic Reconfiguration

Africa in 2026 is not the Africa of 1975. The trade and investment patterns have been transformed by continental programs like the African Continental Free Trade Area and widened regional banking networks. Banks such as African Development Bank are projecting growth of the GDP throughout the continent to around 4 percent by 2026, and the momentum of demographic trends is led by a median age of only 19.

Regional powers such as Morocco, Egypt and Nigeria are increasing cross-border investments, and they are no longer as reliant on European capital as before. According to the World Bank, Moroccan financial institutions have been able to lay footprints in North and West Africa and Mauritania has been able to maintain annually above four percent growth of their economy over the last 10 years.

Morocco’s port and logistics infrastructure — particularly around the Mediterranean gateway — position the wider Maghreb as a potential strategic hub connecting Europe, the Middle East, and sub-Saharan Africa including Mauritania’s renewable energy and fisheries potential and Algeria’s hydrocarbon exports.

These trends might be converted into the real economic possibilities of Western Sahara where there are estimated 600,000 people. The region is at the junction of the old way of life and new industries, between mineral mining and animal rearing, renewable energy, and development of infrastructure in terms of tourism and trade.

Climate Change

Climate change gives a sense of urgency to the advancement in diplomacy. In 2024, temperatures experienced in the Middle East and North Africa were record-breaking and the warming in the region was twice the global average. Droughts are escalating in one of the most water-strained areas in the world, endangering the agricultural activity, pastoralism, and permanent settlement patterns.

The investments of Morocco in the desalination facilities and study on sustainable agriculture provide a possible model in adapting to the climate in arid areas. The cooperation of the region in terms of water management, renewable energy sources, and the reduction of desertification – such projects as the Great Green Wall of the African Union can become more and more involved in the political process of determining the regimes and sovereignty.

Environmental dimension brings out a key fact, which is that, security, sustainability and economic prosperity in the Sahara are inseparable.

A Moment of Convergence

The situation with the current diplomatic course is more of a wider convergence of geopolitical and economic motivation. U.S involvement has interconnected commerce, mineral supply chains, migration control and security partnership into one policy system that promotes regional co-operations. Improved relations and cross-border integration are the benefits to be enjoyed by Algeria, Mauritania, and Morocco.

The western Sahara route, south of Tan-Tan in Morocco to Dakhla and to Nouakchott in Mauritania, might become a key to the development of the region, provided political solutions keep pace with economic ambition.

Steps Toward Resolution

While substantial differences remain, the recent talks suggest that momentum has returned to a process long characterized by stagnation. Progress may be gradual, and autonomy details will likely evolve through further negotiation. Yet the willingness of key actors to reconvene under UN and U.S. auspices signals a departure from the impasse of previous years.

Although there are still significant disparities, the recent negotiation indicates that there is a pace of things that has not been experienced in a process that has been dominated by stagnation. The development might be slow, and the specifics of autonomy will most likely be developed with the development of additional negotiation. However, the readiness of the key actors to reunite under UN and U.S. auspices is an indicator of not going around the rut of past years.

If sustained, 2026 may mark the beginning of the end of a conflict that has shaped generations — and one that, increasingly, is less about the past and more about defining a shared economic and political future for the Sahara region.

So in my point of view 2026 can be a start of the end of the conflict that has defined generations – and one, as it becomes more and more, is less about the past and more about it determining a common economic and political future of the Saharan region.