In Brussels, at the heart of the European quarter, the debate was not merely about institutional reform. It was a fully structured strategic sequence.

The inaugural event of the Shanyraq Dialogues series focused on Kazakhstan’s upcoming constitutional referendum and its implications for EU–Kazakhstan relations.

Kazakhstan Facing “Black Swans”: State Stability and Balance Diplomacy

The chosen date was not incidental: March 1 – Gratitude Day in Kazakhstan.

Established in 2016, this national holiday celebrates unity and coexistence among more than 130 ethnic groups living across the country. In a continental state shaped by Soviet history, forced population transfers, and religious plurality, interethnic stability is a pillar of sovereignty.

In this context, the Constitution is not merely a legal text. It becomes an instrument of internal cohesion and a vector of external projection.

Shanyraq Dialogues: When Kazakhstan Places the Constitution at the Core of Its External Strategy

The sequence observed in Brussels was more than an “embassy–audience” exchange. It was a complete diplomatic staging: mobility (visas), institutional reform, resilience to geopolitical shocks, and repositioning as a middle power — packaged in a distinctly Brussels format: think tanks, academics, consultants, journalists, influence networks.

The conference brought together:

•Roman Vassilenko, Ambassador of Kazakhstan to the European Union

Georgi Gotev, journalist and editor of EUalive.net

Alberto Turkstra, Diplomatic World, moderator

The referendum, scheduled for mid-March, unfolds in an environment marked by systemic shocks: the war in Ukraine, tensions around Iran, energy fragmentation, and Sino-American rivalry.

In this context, Astana pursues three objectives:

•Institutional predictability

•Economic attractiveness

•Diplomatic balance

The Constitution is framed as a resilience mechanism against “black swans.”

1) Mobility: The Invisible Infrastructure of the EU–Kazakhstan Relationship

A central point was established from the outset: a strategic partnership presupposes the circulation of people.

Since 2017, Kazakhstan has unilaterally applied a visa-free regime for EU and OECD member states. The European Union remains more procedurally cautious.

Visa facilitation is not a technical detail. It constitutes the material condition of a relationship based on:

•Academic ecosystems

•Business flows

•Media and think tanks

•Logistical supply chains

Without mobility, partnership remains documentary. With mobility, it becomes organic.

2) Gradualism versus Rupture

The diplomatic discourse insists on progressive reform.

The underlying narrative is clear: abrupt transitions generate instability and allow opportunistic networks to capture power — an implicit reference to post-communist deviations in parts of Eastern Europe.

“Gradualism” versus “shock therapy” becomes a legitimizing framework.

This positioning allows Kazakhstan to:

•Justify structured transformation

•Neutralize criticism regarding the pace of democratization

•Present itself as a state that has learned from post-Soviet transitions

The model promoted is reform without systemic rupture.

3) The Constitution as an Architecture of Resilience

The core of the ambassador’s intervention framed the Constitution as a tool of resilience in an unstable world.

Two messages dominated:

a) The 2022 reforms: necessary but incomplete

Following the January 2022 events, a rebalancing of President–Parliament–Government relations was initiated.
The referendum aims to deepen this restructuring.

b) Organized legal continuity

•Gradual entry into force

•Adoption of complementary constitutional laws

•Maintenance of existing legislation unless amended

The logic is explicit: adjust the architecture without creating a normative vacuum.

4) Vice Presidency: Clarifying Succession

The proposed reform introduces a structured succession mechanism:

President → Vice President → Speaker of the Kurultai → Prime Minister

Formally, the vice presidency holds general competences exercised upon presidential instruction.

Strategically, however, it:

•Reduces institutional uncertainty

•Ensures stability in case of vacancy

•Guarantees continuity of political steering

In a volatile regional environment, such clarification sends a signal to investors and partners.

5) Ukraine, Iran and Caspian Centrality

The war in Ukraine has affected exports via the CPC pipeline infrastructure.
Tensions around Iran reinforce the strategic dimension of the Caspian basin.

The Caspian Sea is now described as a connector of the Middle Corridor, linking the EU to the Caucasus and Central Asia.

Regional security thus becomes an indirect constitutional variable:

Internal stability → External credibility → Logistical security

6) The United States and Strategic Diversification

Historically, relations with Washington rested on:

•Nuclear disarmament

•Oil majors (Chevron, Exxon)

Today, the pillars expand to:

•Critical raw materials

•Energy transition

•Eurasian logistics

•South Caucasus stability

Kazakhstan’s objective is clear: multiply strategic anchors to avoid exclusive dependence.

This aligns with a middle-power doctrine: be useful — therefore indispensable.

7) Societal Rights: Managing Frictions

The constitutional text maintains the definition of marriage as a union between a man and a woman.

Diplomatic messaging emphasizes:

•Decriminalization of same-sex relations (since 1998)

•Absence of criminalization

•Diversity of European models

The signal: social stability before normative rupture.

8) Language: Subtle Equilibrium

Kazakh remains the state language.
Russian maintains official usage “alongside” Kazakh — a nuanced shift from full equality.

Legally subtle, politically strategic, this adjustment allows:

•Affirmation of national identity

•Reassurance of minorities

•Avoidance of identity shock

In a multiethnic state, language remains a strategic variable.

9) The Assumed “Middle Power” Doctrine

Kazakhstan presents itself as a responsible middle power:

•Reliable energy supplier

•Peacekeeping contributor

•Mediation platform

•Multilateral initiator (CICA, interreligious congresses)

The metaphor used is revealing: middle powers as cartilage between the bones of great powers.

The function is not domination, but connection.

Conclusion: The Constitution as Positioning Tool

In Brussels, Astana was not defending merely a text.

It was defending a model:

•Reform without rupture

•Succession clarity

•Legal stabilization

•Strategic indispensability in energy–critical minerals–logistics value chains

In a fragmented world, intermediate states rely on internal coherence to preserve external maneuverability.

Brussels observes.
Astana calibrates.

The Constitution exceeds the legal framework.

It becomes an instrument of power.

Speech by Ambassador Roman Vassilenko

Inaugural Event of the Shanyraq Dialogues – Brussels, March 2, 2026

Ambassador Roman Vassilenko opened in Brussels the first edition of the Shanyraq Dialogues, a platform conceived as an open and forward-looking space for exchange among experts, policymakers, and representatives of civil society. Inspired by the symbolism of the shanyraq — a traditional architectural element representing unity, stability, and a shared home — this initiative seeks to strengthen trust, mutual understanding, and sustainable partnerships.

Geopolitical Context and Kazakhstan’s Position

Before addressing the constitutional reform, the Ambassador referred to the situation in the Middle East, particularly in Iran. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev expressed solidarity with several Arab countries and condemned any military actions undermining the sovereignty of states.

Kazakhstan called for restraint and for the resolution of conflicts exclusively through diplomatic means, in strict accordance with international law and the UN Charter. The Kazakh Ministry of Foreign Affairs also extended condolences to the people of Iran for the recent civilian casualties, while reaffirming the importance of respecting international humanitarian law.

The March 15 Constitutional Referendum

On February 11, President Tokayev signed a decree setting March 15, 2026, as the date for a nationwide referendum on the adoption of a new Constitution.

This reform forms part of a broader process initiated last September, when the President proposed the establishment of a unicameral Parliament to modernize the political system and adapt the state to contemporary challenges, particularly those linked to artificial intelligence and digital transformation.

An Unprecedented Participatory Process

•Establishment of a working group in October.

•More than 2,000 proposals reviewed in the initial phase.

•Creation of a 130-member Constitutional Commission representing all regions and social groups.

•Public broadcasting of the Commission’s sessions.

•Nearly 10,000 comments submitted via official digital platforms.

The draft is thus presented as the outcome of broad civic consultation, giving it a genuinely popular character.

Key Innovations of the Draft Constitution

1. Primacy of Human Rights

The text places strong emphasis on human dignity, fundamental freedoms, and the protection of rights, including in the digital environment.
The permanent abolition of the death penalty is reaffirmed.

2. Core Values

•Sovereignty and territorial integrity.

•Unity and interethnic harmony.

•Affirmation of a unitary and secular state.

•Marriage defined as a voluntary and equal union between a man and a woman.

3. New Institutional Architecture

•Establishment of a unicameral Parliament (Quryltai) composed of 145 deputies elected under a proportional system for five-year terms.

•Introduction of the position of Vice-President.

•Creation of a new nationwide dialogue platform: the Halyq Kenesi (People’s Council).

These reforms aim to enhance political accountability, institutional efficiency, and civic participation.

A Strategic European Dimension

The Ambassador emphasized that the adoption of the new Constitution could provide fresh momentum to the strategic partnership between Kazakhstan and the European Union.

Strengthened governance, increased institutional transparency, and the centrality of human rights would bring Kazakhstan closer to the core principles it shares with the EU: rule of law, dialogue, and public accountability.

Conclusion

According to the Ambassador, the March 15 referendum represents a defining moment for Kazakhstan.

Beyond a legal reform, it is a decision about the country’s trajectory. If adopted, the new Constitution would embody a commitment to a more modern, balanced, and citizen-centered model of governance — and a political signal addressed both to European partners and to the broader international community.