When you type “Kazakhstan” on Google, quite positive recent news appears. Kairat Almaty, Kazakhstan’s UFO that defies Europe, write Belgian newspapers such as Sudinfo or Le Soir. Kazakhstan diversifies its oil exports, writes Business AM. Tokayev presents his digital roadmap, writes Euractiv. Euronews, meanwhile, talks about the country’s space history. These are some of the stories that can be read in world media in recent days about Kazakhstan.

Already ten years ago, a French-language newspaper had written the following article: “Kazakhstan, a regional power with global ambitions” by Boulègue, M. (October 2015). The French author Maxime Onfray, for his part, wrote that Kazakhstan is the engine of Central Asia.

Kazakhstan is undergoing change, a spectacular development, which we international relations experts are struggling to keep up with. The country is developing both its hard power (notably its spectacular economic growth) and soft power (Kazakh music is set to win the hearts of Europeans, including Belgians, particularly with Dimash and the song Zhurek d’Adam, on different levels).

There is value in studying this country, which is becoming an influential middle power in diplomacy and a bridge between continents and cultures. Since the Russo-Ukrainian war, the EU has been turning to new partners—especially Kazakhstan. Indeed, this country is positioning itself as an alternative to Russia for Europe. Moreover, on May 29, during the AIF (Astana International Forum), Giorgia Meloni, at the opening of the plenary session after an official visit to Uzbekistan, noted that Kazakhstan is a “pivotal link between continents in an increasingly interconnected world” and stressed that “the Trans-Caspian Corridor plays a promising role in digital and physical infrastructure,” adding that it is “a very important partner, both for Italy and for Europe.”

Kazakhstan, the country of multi-vector and exemplary policy

The multi-vector foreign policy is based on the concept of developing “friendly and predictable relations with all states” while playing an “important role in world affairs” in order to protect Kazakhstan’s interests. Today, the largest of the five Central Asian republics maintains friendly relations with Europe, China, Central Asian countries, the United States, the Middle East, Pakistan, Turkiye… while diversifying its international influence networks.

During the AIF (Astana International Forum), Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev said that multilateralism will allow cooperation in a world where protectionism is rising. He said Kazakhstan’s policy is structured as follows: “Unity in diversity.”

Since Kassym-Jomart Tokayev took office as president in 2019, Kazakhstan has indeed pursued a strategy of “open sovereignty.” It rejects bloc logics and positions itself as an active mediator—first between its neighbors, but also between middle and great powers (Le Gal de Kerangal, A., June 4, 2025).

Kazakhstan, a proactive diplomacy

Kazakhstan is beginning to establish itself as a pivotal power. From Brussels, one can observe that Kazakhstan is investing in the development of Trans-Caspian transport corridors, building a connected multimodal network, all while actively participating in global climate and energy initiatives.

Beyond this, I had the chance to participate in two international forums organized by Astana this year: the Central Asia Media Forum and the Astana International Forum. Indeed, Kazakhstan has become the initiator of a new form of diplomatic dialogue, embodied by the Astana International Forum, through which the country intends to consolidate its position on the global stage.

On the diplomatic front, Kazakhstan’s determination to manage its relations with all major powers has led it to play a mediating role in international conflicts, notably the Astana Process on Syria, which held its 21st round of negotiations in January.

Since its independence, Kazakhstan has devoted hundreds of millions of dollars to humanitarian and development aid through the Kazakh Agency for International Development (KazAID). In 2022 alone, KazAID contributed more than $36 million in development aid.

The country pursues a truly positive and inclusive diplomacy: a strategic ally of Europe and China, member of several major international organizations such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the Organization of Turkic States, the Islamic Organization for Food Security… as noted by Donnellon-May, G. (March 6, 2024).

Within the Organization of Turkic States, Kazakhstan plays an active role, notably through its commitment to the Turkic World Vision 2040, a framework for cooperation aimed at strengthening economic and energy ties between Turkic-speaking states.

Kazakhstan also makes its voice heard through its ambitions in the fight against climate change and anti-nuclear movements. For example, Kazakhstan, together with France, launched the “One Water Summit,” held in September 2024 in New York on the occasion of the UN General Assembly.

Finally, the country also exercises its role as mediator—whether through the “Astana Format on Syria” (Russia, Turkey, Iran) or by hosting Armenia-Azerbaijan discussions in spring 2024. The country is multiethnic and multi-confessional—this is Kazakhstan’s wealth. Every May 1st, the country celebrates the Day of Unity of the People of Kazakhstan.

Kazakhstan also reacted effectively and in solidarity to the crash, on December 25, of an Azerbaijani passenger plane in the city of Aktau, Mangystau region, which killed 38 passengers, including six Kazakh citizens, wrote Uriarte Sánchez, C. (January 20, 2025). A government commission was set up. Seventeen international experts were invited, including representatives of ICAO and the Interstate Aviation Committee. The commission decided to send the plane’s black boxes to Brazil, where the aircraft had been manufactured, for decoding, in order to guarantee impartiality and objectivity of the investigation.

Kazakhstan, new middle power

“Kazakhstan, middle power, giant in the making?” was the title chosen for the latest Strategic Note of the Choiseul Institute.

Michel Duclos (August 9, 2024) wrote that Kazakhstan should be seen as a middle power because of (1) its vast size (9th largest territory in the world); (2) its geographical position, which makes it a crossroads between China and Europe.

In addition, Marie Dumoulin, a diplomat expert on the region and currently program director at the ECFR, says that Kazakhstan belongs in the middle power category thanks to its willingness to pursue a foreign policy agenda that is not only regional but global, particularly on climate and environmental issues.

The concept of middle power is as old as modern international relations. It first emerged in Italy in the 16th century, where small states such as Venice took intermediate positions between great powers, such as the Ottomans and the Habsburgs (Baç, 2017). For determining the middle power concept, scholars attempted to distinguish between emerging and traditional middle power countries (Bakhtiyarova, A., & Avcu, S. A., 2022).

It must be understood that middle powers will be levers in a reconfigured international order.

As the Great Powers falter and a new world order emerges, ‘middle powers’ are evolving with new influence, offering strategic investment opportunities, wrote Zajmi, X. (June 2, 2025) for Euractiv.

Kazakhstan positioned itself squarely at the heart of this emerging multipolar order. Speaking to Al Jazeera during the AIF, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev reaffirmed Kazakhstan’s commitment to multilateralism and UN Security Council reform, stressing the need for emerging middle powers to play a greater role in securing global peace and stability.

“Multilateralism is faltering,” Tokayev warned, underlining the current paralysis of established international institutions. “Middle powers should join their efforts to make the United Nations more equitable.”

Former U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice once noted during an official visit: “Kazakhstan has been a regional leader since its earliest days of independence” (2005). After gaining independence, on the verge of geopolitical chaos and being a small country, Kazakhstan has become a rising middle power striving to become increasingly visible in world politics. Kazakhstan is definitely the leading country in Central Asia, followed by Uzbekistan.

Indeed, Kazakhstan positioned itself as a middle power thanks to: i) diplomatic authority; ii) high integration into international communities; iii) providing humanitarian assistance to states in need. Despite not matching the economic and military capacity of great powers, the country contributes to peacekeeping in distant regions of the world (Nurshayeva, 2013).

Central Asia is redrawing the balance of power on the international chessboard. For two days, Kazakhstan’s capital, Astana, hosted more than 5,000 participants from over 70 countries—public officials, business leaders, academics, and political leaders—for the second Astana International Forum (AIF), held on May 29–30, 2025 (Le Gal de Kerangal, Axelle).

Growing economy

Since President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev came to power in 2019, Kazakhstan has embarked on a growth dynamic.

Thus, in 2024, modernization of public services and engineering infrastructure was carried out in all regions of the country. Eighteen million square meters of housing were built, 7,000 kilometers of roads were built and repaired, and new passenger terminals were opened at the airports of Almaty, Kyzylorda, and Shymkent. Large projects in the petrochemical, metallurgical, and mining industries were implemented in one year (Uriarte Sánchez, C., January 20, 2025).

In addition, there have been transformations aimed at diversifying its economy, particularly to reduce its dependence on oil and gas. Today, however, its economy places it at the forefront of Central Asian powers, with a GDP accounting for 50% of the region’s total.

Many European articles discuss this. Lorot, President of the Choiseul Institute, and Pierre Verlyck, Advisor to the President of the Choiseul Institute, write about the country: “It is also a dynamic economy, engaged in an accelerated cycle of reforms and modernization, which place Kazakhstan on the map of countries that matter today.” In their article, they described Kazakhstan as a modernizing economic hub. With Tokayev’s rise to power, we observe real economic momentum and accelerated modernization of the country.

In economic policy, Kazakhstan has adopted an open position, attracting investments from all sides. The EU has become an important economic partner of Kazakhstan. Attracting 70% of FDI inflows directed to Central Asia, the country is attracting increasing investor interest due to its potential in many sectors (energy, logistics, agriculture, technology, etc.).

In terms of trade balance, in 2023, foreign trade amounted to $139.8 billion, including $78.7 billion in exports, mainly oil (53.8%), uranium (4.4%), and copper (4.1%) (Choiseul Magazine, October 2024).

The country alone holds more than 40% of the world’s uranium—supplying 40% of French needs—and produces more than half of the 34 strategic raw materials identified by international markets. With sustained growth—4.8% of GDP in 2024, with a projection of 5.4% for 2025—and reinforced political stability, the country alone attracted 63% of Central Asia’s foreign direct investment in 2024, or $17 billion out of a regional total of $27 billion (and a cumulative total of more than $300 billion since independence in 1991).

Moreover, Kazakhstan is becoming increasingly useful to the West in terms of supplying rare metals and minerals.

In Kazakhstan, 16 of the 22 critical materials have high geological potential, making it a key source for clean energy technologies in the region. It holds 30.07% of the world’s chrome reserves, 20% of lead reserves, 12.6% of zinc reserves, 8.7% of titanium reserves, 5.8% of aluminum reserves, 5.3% of copper reserves, 5.3% of cobalt reserves, and 5.2% of molybdenum reserves. Central Asian countries are already among the world’s top 20 producers of many essential materials.

Rare metals are considered essential for the transition to green energy, the development of digital technologies, defense, aerospace, and other high-tech fields. Many specialists predict that Kazakhstan could play a role in supplying the European Union and other countries interested in rare metals. For example, at the end of 2024, in Brussels, several events, roundtables, discussions, and meetings facilitated bilateral exchanges between the EU and Kazakhstan regarding cooperation on raw minerals.

Finally, the agricultural sector has undergone major technological modernization, with a record harvest over the past ten years of nearly 27 million tons of grain.

Kazakhstan, central position, linking two continents

Beyond this territorial wealth, its geographical positioning gives it even greater importance. It now accounts for nearly 80% of rail freight transiting through the Middle Corridor between China and Europe, a figure up 62% between 2023 and 2024.

Kazakhstan has become a major transit route, partly thanks to its participation in China’s Belt and Road Initiative, the EU’s Global Gateway, and the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR).

Lorot, P., & Verlyck, P. (October 2024), wrote that Kazakhstan is now a key link in transport and logistics networks,particularly via the “Middle Corridor,” conducive to expanding trade.

The importance of the country for goods and container transport is highlighted by recent trends. In the first ten months of 2023, 22.5 million tons of freight were transported via Kazakhstan, a 19% increase in volume. Container transport increased by 15% over the same period. The country is expected to continue to play a key role in transport, with transit traffic through Kazakhstan expected to reach 35 million tons by 2029.

Kazakhstan: driver of democratization in Central Asia

The country continues to make progress toward transparency, human rights, and the rule of law, as demonstrated by the commissions of inquiry set up to address both Kazakh society and the international community regarding the January 2022 events, known as the “Qantar events”, which were particularly violent in the cities of Aktau and Almaty.

Furthermore, in Kazakhstan, the presidency is now limited to a single seven-year term, while Parliament has opened up to new political forces, marking a shift toward greater pluralism.

During several meetings of the National Kurultay (National Council), the president’s advisory body that includes civil society representatives and experts, new laws were proposed, adopted, and promoted—clear examples of productive collaboration between state and society in improving legislation: a law on protecting women’s rights and child safety; a new law creating a new voluntary savings system (Keleshek).

In his address to Parliament on September 8, 2025, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev proposed a significantinstitutional reform: transitioning Kazakhstan from a bicameral to a unicameral parliamentary system. This change, which would entail the abolition of the Senate (the upper chamber), could be decided through a national referendum in 2027.

Tokayev emphasized that this reform is a logical continuation of Kazakhstan’s broader modernization and democratization efforts. He also announced that he would not run in the next presidential election, reinforcing his commitment to political renewal and institutional transformation.

Over the past few years, Kazakhstan has undertaken major political reforms, including a national referendum, early presidential elections, and changes to the electoral system. These efforts have been accompanied by improvements in human rights and increased political transparency. The President stressed that the proposed reform must be the subject of a broad public debate involving civil society, experts, and lawmakers, with discussions expected to last at least a year before the referendum.

Kazakhstan’s potential shift to a unicameral parliament reflects its ongoing journey toward a more efficient and inclusive democratic system. Drawing inspiration from successful international models, this reform could enhance legislative responsiveness and reduce costs—provided it is implemented with transparency, public participation, and institutional safeguards.

Conclusion

Kazakhstan is emerging as a dynamic middle power at the crossroads of Europe and Asia. With its multi-vector foreign policy, proactive diplomacy, and commitment to modernization, the country has become both a strategic partner for global powers and a bridge between continents and cultures. Its rapid economic growth, rich natural resources, and central role in new transport corridors reinforce its importance in the evolving multipolar order. At the same time, domestic reforms toward greater transparency, democratization, and inclusivity signal Kazakhstan’s ambition to align its internal development with its growing international role. As great powers falter and new balances of influence are drawn, Kazakhstan’s rise underscores the increasing significance of middle powers in shaping the global order of tomorrow.

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