Introduction

The European Union (EU) is facing one of its most consequential strategic decisions of the past five years as its leaders convene in Brussels to determine the framework for long-term financial support to Ukraine. According to European Commission estimates, Ukraine will require approximately €137 billion in external financing for the 2026–2027 period, with the EU expected to contribute nearly two-thirds of this amount. The debate has exposed significant divisions among member states, particularly over whether support should be financed through the utilisation of frozen Russian state assets or through new EU-level borrowing. Framed by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen as a test of Europe’s strategic autonomy, the outcome of the summit will serve as a critical indicator of the EU’s capacity to translate geopolitical ambition into sustained political and financial action.

1. The Strategic Imperative of Long-Term Support for Ukraine

The insistence by the European Commission that the summit should not conclude without a concrete decision reflects the extent to which the war in Ukraine has become embedded in the EU’s strategic self-definition. Commission projections indicate that Ukraine’s external financing needs will reach €137 billion in 2026–2027, a figure that underscores the scale and duration of the EU’s prospective commitment.

The timing of the debate is particularly significant. As diplomatic efforts surrounding potential negotiations intensify, Russia has simultaneously escalated missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure. This dual dynamic has reinforced the perception within EU institutions that postponement or indecision could generate substantial strategic costs. Consequently, the core issue confronting EU leaders is no longer whether to support Ukraine, but rather how to design a financing mechanism that is both politically viable and institutionally sustainable.

2. Frozen Russian Assets and Intra-EU Divisions

One of the most contentious options under consideration is the potential use of frozen Russian Central Bank assets held within EU jurisdictions. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has emerged as a leading proponent of this approach, arguing that it would reduce pressure on European public finances while increasing the economic costs borne by Russia for prolonging the conflict.

Domestic political conditions in Germany appear to facilitate this stance, as public opinion surveys indicate majority support for redirecting frozen Russian state assets to Ukraine. However, consensus at the EU level remains elusive. Belgium, which occupies a pivotal position due to the concentration of immobilised assets under its legal authority, has consistently raised concerns related to legal precedent and financial stability. These concerns have slowed momentum and highlighted the structural constraints that complicate collective decision-making within the Union.

In response, von der Leyen has advanced a dual-track approach that combines mechanisms derived from frozen Russian assets with the option of new EU-level borrowing. While the recent agreement to maintain the indefinite immobilisation of Russian assets represents a political milestone, transforming this measure into direct financial assistance for Ukraine remains legally complex and politically sensitive.

3. Immediate Assistance and the Broader Geopolitical Context

Alongside the debate on long-term financing, the EU has continued to provide immediate support to Ukraine. Germany’s announcement of an additional €70 million in winter assistance illustrates ongoing efforts to address urgent humanitarian and infrastructure needs, particularly in light of continued Russian attacks on energy and civilian targets.

At the same time, the summit agenda extends beyond the war itself. EU leaders are expected to address the long-standing free trade agreement with the Mercosur bloc, negotiations that date back to 1999. Supporters interpret this initiative as part of a broader strategy aimed at diversifying Europe’s economic partnerships and strengthening its position in an increasingly competitive and fragmented global economy.

Within this broader context, von der Leyen has framed the Ukraine decision as emblematic of Europe’s evolving role in a world shaped by power politics and shifting economic centres of gravity. Declining European and American shares of global GDP, contrasted with China’s expanding economic influence, have reinforced arguments that support for Ukraine constitutes not merely solidarity, but a form of strategic self-defence.

Conclusion

The Brussels summit represents a critical moment for the European Union’s strategic credibility. The decision on how to finance long-term support for Ukraine transcends technical budgetary considerations and legal frameworks, touching instead on the EU’s capacity to act as a coherent geopolitical and security actor. While the Union has already demonstrated an ability to undertake measures once considered politically unattainable—such as reducing dependence on Russian energy and increasing defence investment—the financing of Ukraine will test whether internal divisions can be overcome in pursuit of sustained strategic objectives. Ultimately, the outcome of this process will reveal whether the EU can move beyond rhetorical commitment and institutional inertia to deliver enduring political and financial action in an era defined by heightened geopolitical risk.

https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2025/12/17/von-der-leyen-warns-of-eus-dangerous-reality-in-shifting-world-order-ahead-of-crunch-summi

https://www.deutschland.de/en/news/decisive-eu-summit-begins-in-brussels

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/da/speech_25_3102