The first finalist of the 2026 FIFA World Cup will be decided tonight. France, finalists in the last two tournaments, and Spain, the reigning European champions, take the field to determine who advances to the final. But this match is far more than a semifinal — it is a reckoning between the two nations that have shaped world football more than any other over the past two decades.

The Two Nations That Defined Modern Football

France and Spain have jointly shaped the direction of world football since the early 2000s. Spain's two European Championships and one World Cup between 2008 and 2012 turned "tiki-taka" possession football into a global coaching standard, permanently altering how the game is taught around the world. France, meanwhile, with World Cup titles in 1998 and 2018, a multicultural squad and an unbroken production line of stars from Zidane to Mbappe, is regarded as the most consistent footballing power of the last quarter century. Beyond their national teams, both countries also built the modern game through La Liga and Ligue 1's global pipelines for young talent.

A Rivalry That Extends Beyond the Pitch: Even Politicians Are Watching

This rivalry has spilled well beyond the football world and into politics. Ahead of the tournament, former Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy, an ex-leader of the center-right People's Party, criticized the number of players of immigrant background on the French national team, sparking a political controversy between the two countries. The remarks drew wide attention, and current Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez was also drawn into the dispute. That a single semifinal can prompt a former head of government to weigh in — and a sitting one to respond — is perhaps the clearest sign of just how far the France-Spain rivalry reaches beyond 90 minutes on the field.

The Road to Tonight

France topped their group before eliminating Sweden, Paraguay and Morocco to reach a third consecutive World Cup semifinal. Les Bleus have scored 16 goals on their way here, led up front by Kylian Mbappe (8 goals) and Ousmane Dembele (5 goals).

Spain topped their own group and knocked out Austria, Portugal and Belgium to reach the final four, conceding just a single goal across the tournament — a testament to their defensive discipline. Young star Lamine Yamal and captain Rodri remain La Roja's most decisive figures.

Likely Lineups

🔵🔴 France: Maignan; Kounde, Upamecano, Saliba, Digne; Tchouameni, Rabiot; Dembele, Olise, Doue; Mbappe

🔴🟡 Spain: Porro, Cubarsi, Laporte, Cucurella; Rodri, Fabian; Yamal, Olmo, Baena; Oyarzabal

History Favors Spain

Recent head-to-head statistics show a clear edge for Spain over France:

Spain has won 7 of the last 10 meetings, with 1 draw and 2 losses.
Spain won 4 of the last 6 matches, and 3 of the last 4.
The two sides also met at this same stage — the semifinal — at UEFA EURO 2024, where Spain came out on top en route to the title.
France, however, holds one wild memory of its own: in one of their recent meetings, France lost a thrilling 5-4 encounter.
Lamine Yamal has scored 3 goals in his two career appearances against France.

What's at Stake

The winner advances to the final on Sunday, July 19, where they will face the winner of the England-Argentina semifinal for the World Cup title.