By Kadir Duran Bruxelles Korner, Saturday 8 November 2025

Belgium’s “Arizona” coalition is stalling, the federal budget is drifting, and Prime Minister Bart De Wever has given himself 50 days not one more to broker a deal before Christmas. If he fails, he will resign.

Behind the scenes, everyone understands the real consequence: provisional twelfths on 1 January, delayed reforms, and a country moving in slow motion.

What falls through (at least until March)

No pension bonus-malus
No reform of night work
No capital gains tax (law not ready → impossible to start on 1 Jan)

Bottom line: Belgium slides into provisional twelfths.
Real implementation of reforms at best begins on 1 April (payroll/logistics constraints).

Estimated cost: €1.2–1.7 billion in lost revenue by end-March.

On the capital gains tax, a political deal exists (10% tax, €10,000 exemption), but banks, tax authorities and legal services are nowhere near operational readiness.
No law = no start.

A tense political moment: hardened positions

De Wever raises the stakes: “By Christmas or the end.”
Conner Rousseau denounces the “humiliations” inflicted on the PM and insists on a stronger contribution from high earners.
Alexia Bertrand criticises a budget process that is “too late and too unstructured.”

But the real showdown is elsewhere: MR vs N-VA.

Libéral line: “No new taxes.”
Nationalist line: “Choices must be made now.”

The ultimatum turns an internal standoff into a political gamble.

Why provisional twelfths are a very bad signal

The National Bank of Belgium is clear:

debt trajectory is deteriorating
interest charges are exploding
delays mechanically worsen the deficit

Provisional twelfths merely “pause” spending.
They fix nothing.

Direct impact on workers, savers, businesses

Pay packets: no adjustment via the tax-free allowance in January → postponed to 1 April
Savings: total uncertainty until the capital gains law is adopted
Labour market: night-work reform and activation of long-term sick postponed

Two scenarios before Christmas

1) “Go” compromise

Emergency vote end-December
Realistic implementation: 1 April
Capital gains tax: final text + partial rollout in 2026

2) “Stop” rupture

PM resigns
Provisional twelfths extended
Reforms frozen
Bad signal to financial markets

Bouchez, alone against all? The GLB moment

One name dominates the backstage narrative: Georges-Louis Bouchez.

Arizona partners first discreetly, then openly point to him as the main source of the deadlock.

Even Maxime Prévot, usually measured, eventually said:

“The MR’s stance is one of the causes of this difficulty.”

Bouchez’s line is crystal clear:

“Less spending, no new taxes.”

And above all: he refuses to bend to De Wever.

A liberal strategist sums it up:

“De Wever isn’t used to facing someone who won’t fold.
Bouchez keeps pushing.”

But the gamble has a cost

Popularity: rejecting a VAT hike + indexation pause
Risk: being branded the saboteur of the government

Meanwhile the budget machinery is seizing up:

€1.3–1.6 billion in delayed revenue
early-retirement and labour reforms postponed
capital gains tax stuck in limbo
reforms paralysed

One year lost.
One billion evaporated.
One country idling.

Bruxelles Korner Editorial Line

Belgium cannot spend three months in “standby mode” and expect a fiscal miracle in spring.

Provisional twelfths prevent overspending — they do not repair anything.

This ultimatum forces each party to answer a simple question:
What are you truly willing to reform, and which tax are you willing to defend in front of citizens?

Main sources:
Reuters (50-day ultimatum), 7sur7/HLN (Rousseau), RTL Info (loss estimates), NBB (debt trajectory), Belfius/FEB/Febelfin (capital gains parameters).