BRUSSELS POLITICAL CRISIS

“Guinness Coalition” or Yet Another Episode in a Chronic Deadlock?

By Kadir Duran – Bruxelles Korner

After 541 days of failed negotiations, phantom agreements and endless meetings, Brussels remains the only European capital unable to form a government.
And yet, a turning point or an additional impasse has just emerged:
Yvan Verougstraete, president of Les Engagés, is now attempting a center-left coalition without the MR.

A spectacular rupture, a risky gamble… and an arithmetic reality that simply does not move.

1. A “Guinness Coalition” for a Record-Breaking Deadlock?

Yvan Verougstraete thought it wise to name his hypothetical majority “Guinness Coalition”, a clumsy reference to the Guinness Book of Records:

record number of days without a government,
record number of parties required,
record deficit to fill,
record level of assumed political chaos.

A joke? A provocation? A communication stunt?
Whatever the intention, his own communication team immediately tried to extinguish the fire, suggesting the alternative name “Magritte Coalition” for its surreal nature.

In Brussels, even coalition names become ongoing soap operas.

2. Verougstraete’s Strategy: A Mathematically Fragile Gamble

The formateur aims to gather:

Groen – Vooruit – CD&V – PS – Écolo – Défi – Les Engagés

➡️ 43 seats out of 89 a solid central bloc… but still far from a majority.
He is missing:

Francophone side: 1 seat (36/72 required)
Dutch-speaking side: 2 seats (7/17 required)

Potential paths:

Francophone side: disguising an impossible majority

Fabian Maingain (Libres) is willing to offer his vote.
Soulaimane El Mokadem might follow.
Fantasized support from individual MR MPs circulates in the corridors.

Nothing guaranteed. Nothing transparent.

Dutch-speaking side: the Open VLD illusion

Verougstraete is trying to convince Open VLD with an “ambitious budgetary blueprint”.

Except that…

Frédéric De Gucht has already said no. Three times. In capital letters: NEE.
CD&V Brussels shows interest, but president Mahdi remains opposed.

Internal fracture: total.

3. Flemish Parties Reject Ahidar… Yet Ahidar Becomes the Secret Weapon

Fouad Ahidar (TFA), long ignored, is resurfacing as an accidental joker.

Facts to remember:

TFA holds 3 seats on the Dutch-speaking side decisive.
Ahidar offers external support to install a government.
No Flemish party (Vooruit, Open VLD, CD&V) officially wants him.
Défi also refuses… while co-signing parliamentary texts with him every week.

But as every path closes,
the Ahidar option returns to the table inevitably.

➤ Ahidar’s scathing statement

The TFA leader summarizes what many think:

“Same parties, same scenario, same failure.”

He reminds everyone that:

Verougstraete proposes exactly the same plan as after his previous mission,
Open VLD had already said no,
nothing indicates their position has changed.

And most importantly:

“Either they have solid indications, or they are wasting our time. For TFA, this is unacceptable.”

Ahidar also highlights the hypocrisy of those who reject TFA in a coalition
but work with them weekly on parliamentary votes.

His line is clear:
open to dialogue, not to being used as a spare part.

4. The MR Excluded: A Political Shock and an Impending Counterattack

Excluding the MR the party that won the Brussels elections is a major political gesture.
It is also:

a direct challenge to the MR–Engagés partnership in Wallonia and at federal level,
a personal affront to Georges-Louis Bouchez,
a calculated risk by Verougstraete that could backfire.

From the liberal side, the view is already clear:

➡️ the Guinness Coalition will fail,
➡️ Verougstraete will eventually return to the MR,
➡️ the counterattack will be fierce.

Bouchez proposed a reduced emergency government.
Verougstraete responded with an alliance… that does not have a majority.

5. Is a Minority Government Possible?

If Verougstraete manages to install even a minority government, it would operate:

like a permanent “12th provisional government”,
with shifting, text-by-text majorities,
through constant negotiation.

It would be unstable.
But it would be better than total paralysis, according to some Brussels leaders.

The symbolic battle:
proving that a government works better without Bouchez than against him.

6. Final Assessment: Bold Attempt… but Almost Arithmetically Impossible

What works against Verougstraete:

Open VLD says no
CD&V says maybe
Défi hesitates
MR is furious
The coalition lacks 3 seats
Les Engagés risk a federal rupture with MR
Internal party tensions rise

What works in his favor:

Widespread political exhaustion
A diffuse desire to show that Bouchez is not indispensable
The discreet but real Ahidar option
Public support from Groen, PS and Écolo
His image as a “Brussels-first reformer”

Conclusion: Brussels Remains Blocked With or Without Guinness

The “Guinness Coalition” lives up to its name:
it already holds the record for the most fragile solution ever imagined.

Verougstraete is attempting an unprecedented, almost desperate political stunt:

sidelining the MR,
rallying seven parties,
convincing stray MPs,
seducing a hostile Open VLD,
keeping Ahidar as a hidden time-bomb.

Meanwhile, Brussels:

sinks further into deficit,
remains under caretaker management,
is paralyzed by politicians focused on tactics rather than citizens.

Failure is likely. Chaos is certain.
But in this crisis where political surrealism outshines Magritte,
anything is still possible.