Introduction

Japan’s crude oil imports from the Middle East falling by more than 67 percent in April compared to the previous year signals the beginning of a new fracture in the global energy order. The data released by Tokyo demonstrates that the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz is not merely a regional crisis, but a development creating a broad sphere of economic and strategic consequences stretching from Asia to Europe.

The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the world’s most critical energy transit routes, carrying millions of barrels of oil every day. For countries like Japan, which are heavily dependent on external energy supplies, this route is vital. However, the crisis is not only affecting the Japanese economy; it is also generating consequences that directly concern Europe, which has faced serious vulnerabilities in energy security in recent years.

Following the Russia-Ukraine war, Europe’s energy architecture changed dramatically. Seeking to reduce dependence on Russian gas, the European Union increased LNG imports and deepened energy cooperation with the United States and Gulf countries. Now, Japan’s rapid turn toward the same suppliers is intensifying global energy competition even further. This development is expected to impact not only energy prices, but also Europe’s industrial competitiveness, logistics systems, and geopolitical balance.

Global Energy Competition Could Trigger a New Wave of Costs for Europe

Japan’s search for alternative suppliers to compensate for the loss of Middle Eastern oil is increasing demand for U.S. energy resources in particular. The 118 percent increase in Japan’s oil imports from the United States reveals how rapidly this transition is taking place. However, for Europe, this means growing competition over the same energy resources.

European countries that distanced themselves from Russian energy sources over the past two years have become heavily dependent on U.S. LNG and alternative oil suppliers. Now, as Japan and other Asian economies increasingly turn to these markets, a new upward pressure on global energy prices may emerge. Particularly in the LNG market, rising demand could once again increase Europe’s energy bills.

For Europe, energy costs are not simply a consumer issue; they have become a strategic matter directly linked to industrial competitiveness. Germany’s chemical sector, France’s heavy industry, and Italy’s manufacturing hubs have already been under serious pressure due to high energy costs in recent years. If global competition over energy intensifies further, European industries could face renewed increases in production costs, weakening their competitiveness in global markets.

This could create a significant disadvantage for European companies competing with China and the United States. Rising energy prices may not only increase production costs but also reduce investment appetite. Discussions about European manufacturers relocating production to regions with lower energy costs could once again return to the agenda.

The Crisis in the Strait of Hormuz Could Also Disrupt Europe’s Logistics and Trade Systems

The Strait of Hormuz is not only essential for oil transportation, but also for the overall flow of global trade. Japan’s dramatic decline in oil imports demonstrates how fragile maritime trade routes have become. For Europe, this creates risks not only in terms of energy, but also for global logistics chains.

In recent years, the pandemic, security crises in the Red Sea, and the Russia-Ukraine war have already caused major disruptions in global logistics systems. A new wave of instability centered around Hormuz could push maritime transportation costs even higher. Insurance premiums and tanker shipping costs may rise significantly.

These developments could directly affect Europe’s automotive, technology, chemical, and defense industries. Energy-intensive sectors are likely to experience even greater cost pressure. As a result, the European Union’s industrial modernization and green transition initiatives may become considerably more expensive.

At the same time, Europe’s ports and logistics hubs may face new challenges. Major trade centers such as Rotterdam, Hamburg, and Antwerp could require new logistics planning due to shifting trade and energy flows. Expanding alternative energy corridors and storage capacity may once again become a strategic priority across Europe.

As America’s Energy Power Expands, Europe’s Strategic Dependence Could Deepen

Japan’s rapid shift toward U.S. energy supplies highlights Washington’s increasingly central role in global energy security. For Europe, this may appear to be a safe alternative in the short term, but in the long term it could create new debates over strategic dependence.

Reducing dependence on Russian energy has been a major strategic goal for Europe. However, the emerging picture suggests that Europe is becoming increasingly integrated into the U.S. energy system. This may lead to new economic and political balancing efforts within the continent.

Major European economies such as France and Germany may accelerate investments in renewable energy in order to strengthen energy independence. Nuclear energy projects could return to the forefront, while more aggressive policies in hydrogen, solar, and wind energy investments may emerge.

The European Union may also begin treating energy security not only as an economic issue, but as a matter of defense and foreign policy. Energy crises today are no longer creating only price increases; they are also reshaping countries’ geopolitical maneuvering space.

Rising Asian Demand Could Complicate Europe’s Fight Against Inflation

Japan’s shift toward alternative energy suppliers and growing energy demand across Asia may create new waves of increases in global commodity prices. This could complicate the European Central Bank’s battle against inflation.

Rising energy prices may trigger inflationary pressure across Europe through transportation, manufacturing, and food costs. Countries heavily dependent on imported energy could see particularly strong effects on consumer prices, creating additional pressure on monetary policy.

European economies have spent recent years trying to balance high interest rates with weak economic growth. A new global energy shock could slow the recovery process even further. Declining industrial output and weaker consumer spending may drag down growth rates across the continent.

Conclusion

The historic decline in Japan’s access to Middle Eastern oil once again demonstrates the fragility of the global energy system. The crisis centered around the Strait of Hormuz carries enormous significance not only for Asian economies, but also for Europe’s energy security, industrial production, logistics systems, and economic stability.

In the coming period, Europe may witness faster and more radical transformations in energy policy. Diversification of energy sources, strengthening strategic reserves, expanding renewable energy investments, and establishing new logistics corridors could become Europe’s main priorities.

In this new era of intensifying global energy competition, energy security is no longer merely an economic issue; it has become one of the defining elements of geopolitical power balances. How Europe adapts to this process may become one of the key determinants of the continent’s economic and political resilience in the years ahead.